Does it actually pay for itself?

Four calculators for the big home energy decisions, built on 51 states of real utility and climate data — and willing to tell you when the answer is no.

Every other calculator in this space is funded by someone who profits from a yes.

Why these numbers disagree with the brochure

Payback calculators are usually published by people selling the thing being calculated. The result is a set of predictable thumb on the scale: a flat efficiency figure applied to every climate, solar production quoted before real-world losses, battery savings counted twice, EV charging priced as though every kilowatt-hour comes from a cheap home tariff.

We model each of those honestly and show the workings on every page. Sometimes that produces a worse answer than you were hoping for — a heat pump costs more to run than gas across most of the cold north, and a home battery does not pay for itself anywhere on bill savings alone. Those are the findings, so those are what we publish.

None of it is an argument against buying. It is an argument for knowing the real number first, and for buying the thing for the reason it actually delivers.

Data vintage: Electricity: EIA Electric Power Monthly Table 5.6.B (residential, May 2026 YTD). Solar resource: PVGIS v5.3 (EU JRC), ERA5 2005-2023. Gasoline: AAA state averages. Natural gas: EIA residential by state. Heating degree days: NOAA CPC population-weighted normals. Retrieved 2026-08-03/04. Install costs, household usage, net-metering status, annual mileage, time-of-use spreads and outage hours remain estimates.